Eeveryone living in America today has a higher standard of living than the President and his family had 90 years ago. As is common knowledge by now, less than two months ago, the prevailing consensus was that while a Hillary victory in the presidential election would be bullish for risk assets, a Trump victory would likely result in a correction.

And, sure enough, as almost always happens, and as David Rosenberg reminded us earlier today courtesy of Bob Farrell's Rule 9, " When all the experts and forecasts agree, something else is going to happen. What happened was a dramatic surge in the market because Trump was elected, as his victory unleashe the hope of massive fiscal stimulus, something none of the experts predicted would happen.

Barron's held its latest annual strategist roundtable. The article explaining their outlook starts, appropriately enough, with: As the following chart from Barron's notes, was a year of surprises, which however after an initial scare, were mostly to the upside, even as the news kept getting progressively worse:.

The unexpected election last month of Donald J. As stocks took off on Nov. Or as the following Salil Mehta chart puts it To be sure, the experts have left themselves a loophole: For the moment, however, there is hope—and plenty of it. Still, all 10 strategists see stocks gaining more ground next year.

Compare that with September, when only four of the group were bullish—and some forecasters thought the market would head south for the remainder of this year. What should one make of this particularly expert consensus expert? As we noted earlier today, David Rosenberg has a rather negative view of this optimistic outlook. The markets are indeed forward-looking but this latest leg of the risk rally has a certain speculative feel to it. Now, some full disclosure. I actually find it senseless to provide a forecast for the entire year ahead at this time.

We are not in normal, more stable time periods. We have been in a heightened state of volatility and that will intensify in because of the political dynamics in the U. We have a president who tweets the first thing that comes to his head, has appointed a cabinet filled with billionaires even though it was rural blue-collar voters that pushed him over the top, and every pro-growth promise was met with an anti-growth measure.

We are way oversold here. I think it is very dangerous to be basing investment decisions on expectations of government policy. What is done and when it is done is far too uncertain, and uncertainty is inherently difficult to price.

And yes, the stock market tripled, but that was almost exclusively due to TARP, ZIRP, and QE. And yes, I am aware that Mr. Back to the coming year. Look for extreme volatility. That will breed recurring trading opportunities on both the long and short side, and across the asset classes.

This means holding a higher level of cash than is normal at all times for optionality purposes. Be mindful of how quickly things are getting priced in and be willing to take profits on positions early — more than normal. Which is why is so instructive in terms of making big bold predictions at the end of a given year, especially the one we are about to head into given the extremely wide range of outcomes.

We started off the year at 2. Treasury note yield; went down to 1. We had a cumulative basis points of declines on the rally days and basis points of cumulative increases in yield on the selloff sessions. And look at the Fed: What happens when, even if proven right, all those forecasts come to fruition by the end of January? Well, the answer David is simple: As for Rosenberg, who refreshingly admits he has no idea what will happen, here is his "forecast.

Exponentially rapidly rising or falling markets usually go further than you think, but they do not correct by going sideways. So I strongly think we will be seeing a ton of volatility in an even more politically charged year. I think that there is a risk as per 4 that we could well see an early-year meltup in bond yields and equity prices that will then leave us with a 2 situation where the excessive move up in long-dated rates and stock prices reverse course.

How to trade it? I believe that fading the inflation psychology and identifying equity sectors and areas of the capital market more generally that are not priced for excessive optimism and not currently experiencing a crowded trade, in other words moving against the herd mentality, will likely bear fruit in what is probably going to be an even more intense roller coaster ride than what we witnessed in So who wil be right: We look forward to the answer, roughly one year from today.

Trump himself said that he LOVES debt. He's the KING of leverage. Banks are about to make a KILLING over all the new debt created to help make America "great" again. I like the theory of the bond rally, only problem is with China selling hard, who will be the buyer? Corporate bonds high grade have largely skated so far Id like one nice down day this week to close some shorts edz before the Santa Rally this year which could be a big one So you probably correct.

Still, get the fuck out of here with the constant Gold bashing. Tyler calls them as they are, GUESSERS. Their track record is rotton and they are evil. They need to be put in jail with Hillary and they can all fight it out in there. Once Trump is in things will calm down. The markets may take a hit but in the long run Trump is the best candidate to get the country economically stronger. About three weeks ago I saw a bunch of you discussing ShepWave.

Their trading signals are really working out well. I have gone over the last three years of their buy and sell calls and honestly have never seen anything so impressive when it comes to past calls. Even in oil and gold. Barrons has some good guessers, but they are guessers. They have not proven track record like you say.

There are not many actual traders or investors on here. There are still a lot of hacks. But There are a few who have benefited from the analyst you cite. Everyone was talking about how ShepWave. I understand that in Singapore, Van, you prefer to wok cats, and fuck boys, pretending to be girls, in the ass. I worked for over 45 years as a financial adviser and economics and finance professor.

The ShepWave name has been around for the past 30 years. They have a private client list that is like the who's who among the rich. It has only been in the last 25 years or so that they have been allowing others to read their reports. It actually does not do them a lot of good to talk about them here. For one, most people on here are only here to be perverted as you see below, and for two, most people on here do not have a trading or investing account and for three, if they do have a trading or investment account they are probably clueless.

That is not the case just on Zerohedge, but everywhere. I did not intend to be disparaging in any way. I am sure you are a fine person. But there are a lot of disgusting repulsive people on here.

Carl, we are indeed rather tolerant here. But that is why many of us like it. Not only do we get to hear what people really think, we get to speak how we really feel. For many of us, there is no place like ZH, no place like ZH, no place Just as some of these individuals have the right of free speech to speak vulgar and repulsive language, I have the right to say how much of an ignoramus it makes them look like. I am a retired college professor.

Those whos speak in a vile way do not usually have a very extensive vocabulary and are usually ignorant in the first place.

Barron's Finance & Investment Handbook - John Downes, Jordan Elliot Goodman - Google Livres

Obviously you have not even bothered to look into their fulfilled market predictions. There are a bunch of liberals on here like this one. You can alwaysd tell because they never make any sense and are extremely self-absorbed. Have hou seen this person's other posts? Make no sense and have no connection to the topic whatsoever. Femdaytrade, Brit Bob, Angelfire?

I have no idea of what you are even talking about. Again, I say delusional. Amazing only one of the 10 is no longer in the same job after 3 years Here's our Cookie Policy. How to report offensive comments. Home Contributors Newsletter Donate More Store ZH-TShirt Glossary Archive Manifesto RSS. Dec 18, 7: So, what do the experts think now? Which brings us to the latest garthering of experts.

As the following chart from Barron's notes, was a year of surprises, which however after an initial scare, were mostly to the upside, even as the news kept getting progressively worse: But it was the outcome of the November 8 election that threw everyone for a spin: None David Rosenberg TARP Volatility Meltup Bond Demographics Herd Mentality Rosenberg.

Printer-friendly version Dec 18, 7: Comment viewing options Flat list - collapsed Flat list - expanded Threaded list - collapsed Threaded list - expanded. Date - newest first Date - oldest first. Select your preferred way to display the comments and click "Save settings" to activate your changes.

J S Bach Dec 18, 7: I like Rodney's advice Translation to everyone else: Sell all banking and financial sector stocks. Son of Loki brockhardman Dec 18, 7: Even my realtor says, "There's never been a better time then now to buy a house. I want to see their forecasts. I'm sure they saw the future well that year.

AGuy brockhardman Dec 18, 9: What does Dennis Gartman say? I only trust his opinion! Wulfkind J S Bach Dec 18, 7: JusticeTBuford Wulfkind Dec 18, 7: This is not drowning?

Universe JusticeTBuford Dec 18, 8: Wulfkind JusticeTBuford Dec 18, 9: DEMIZEN Wulfkind Dec 18, Wulfkind DEMIZEN Dec 19, 8: SirBarksAlot Wulfkind Dec 18, They're talking about using negative interest rates to finance the "new deal. Wulfkind SirBarksAlot Dec 19, 8: Seasmoke Dec 18, 7: Seasmoke Dec 18, 8: Seasmoke buzzsaw99 Dec 18, 7: AngryNinja Dec 18, 7: So basically these genius get paid millions to predict.

Sectors that innovate or create wealth via debt creation - Tech and Financals will be winners 2. Old non-innovate or heavily regulated shit like Utils and Telecomms avoid I guess theres a reason they are not rocket scientist. DannyZZ not verified wisebastard Dec 18, 7: No,sell banks and buy PM's,weapons,ammo,food,water and medical supplies MikeM54 Debeachesand Jerseyshores Dec 18, 8: A guaranteed win when doing the opposite.

DannyZZ not verified Dec 18, 7: Nice to have some place on the net that is not overridden with LIberals. ErikE DannyZZ Dec 18, 8: Good analsyt you mention. Who is more disgusting and repulsive? DannyZZ Dec 18, 8: SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM SPAM. Did you have eggs with your SPAM? LIke you would even know how to read an analyst report!

Carl DannyZZ Dec 18, Carl Dec 18, Carl SirBarksAlot Dec 19, Happy holidays to you. Carl Dec 19, Carl Mustafa Kemal Dec 19, 7: Carl Dec 19, 1: You have been registered for four weeks.

Every comment on every thread is about "shitwave". Then femdaytrader three weeks chimes in and agrees with DrCarl about "shitwave". Go sit in the corner with BritBob and the poster with the Netherlands is racist crud. The shepwave web site looks like an angelfire home page minus the neon lavender background. Carl Dec 19, 7: Create new account Request new password.

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New Comments 9: C'mon this thread is about Philo Beddoe. Gartman was invented to make The Count. But what will fuel their Xena fobe. You need to go to war with tbone Looks like asshole hour at Bill of Rights.

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